The 10-year benchmark US Treasury (US10Y) closed today at 2.39%. The US10Y hit it’s year-to-date high on January 18th and has slowly dropped down to today’s current rate. This is a continued decline extending back to early October of 2018 when the Treasury was at 3.23%. With the threats of a trade war by both the United States and China combines with a bull market that is long in the tooth, investors have continued to slowly reduce their positions in riskier stocks and increased their stake in the safer, less volatile, U.S. Treasurys.
Many industry experts aren’t expecting mortgage rates to continue falling even with the steady decline in the US10Y. Bankrate.com’s weekly mortgage rate trend index, found that nearly two-thirds of the experts it surveyed believe rates will remain relatively stable in the coming week. This week (May 15-May 21), no one predicted rates will rise; 38 percent think rates will fall; and 62 percent predicted rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).